Top White House economist: I believe jobs numbers, but agency needs fixes
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Council of Economic Advisers chairman Stephen Miran at an event in Washington, D.C. in April. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP via Getty Images
Top White House economist Stephen Miran tells Axios a key economic statistics agency needs "fresh eyes," but he stopped short of repeating President Trump's claim that Friday's jobs data was politically manipulated.
Why it matters: President Trump ordered the the firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner on Friday after alleging — without evidence — that disappointing jobs numbers were "rigged."
- The bureau later confirmed commissioner Erika McEntarfer was terminated, with her deputy William Wiatrowski stepping in as acting commissioner.
Catch up quick: The July jobs report, released earlier on Friday, showed just 73,000 jobs added last month.
- The BLS also announced massive revisions that showed employment was a combined 258,000 lower than previously thought.
- It was the second-largest two-month downward revision on record, behind only the pandemic.
What they're saying: "There's been very little attempt to actually fix this problem and come up with creative solutions to make the data more reliable," says Miran.
- "It is absolutely time for fresh eyes on this to try and come up with solutions to improve the reliability of the data and get those revision levels down."
- Miran said the agency should try to incentivize faster responses or delay the data publications by a week or two, if it means smaller revisions down the line.
Catch up quick: "In my opinion, today's Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad," Trump posted on Truth Social.
- Trump accused the agency of boosting jobs figures to support his opponent's presidential candidacy.
Reality check: The BLS, a nonpolitical agency housed within the Labor Department, has faced plummeting response rates to the surveys that comprise the report.
- It has scaled back some of its data collection — the Consumer Price Index report, for instance — due in part to proposed budget cuts.
"Economic data are always noisy and this has always been a problem that has plagued economic research and economists — it's one that we make the best of," Miran said.
- Asked if he believes the numbers released by the BLS, Miran said "I think if the BLS tells me that there were 14,000 jobs created [in June], I don't have a competing survey that tells me otherwise."
Between the lines: Miran said that revisions were largely a result of statistical artifacts — namely adjustments to account for seasonal quirks.
- He said that Trump's immigration policies would "inevitably show up in one way or another in the labor market data. I think that some of what we saw is also due to that."
- "If we're swapping out foreign-born job holders for American-born job holders, I think that's a win," Miran said.
What to watch: Mainstream economists say the economy and labor market will likely slow further this year.
- But Miran said there is "really good reason" to believe that the economy will get better from here, citing Trump's trade deals and tax cuts.
