Trump ignites chain reaction with early redistricting gamble

• "Why the f**k are we responding and reacting to the other side instead of taking offense on these things?" potential Texas Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke told Democrats this week.
• But going on offense is easier said than done: Democrats would need a court order or special election in most states where they could try to draw more favorable maps.

The big picture: Republicans are hoping to pick off more than a half-dozen Democratic-held seats by redrawing congressional maps ahead of 2026.

Redistricting for partisan advantage is nothing new, but it's usually done after the census every ten years. The next one's scheduled for 2030.

• In Texas, Trump has encouraged Republicans to embark on a redistricting project that he's said could net the party as many as five seats.
• In Ohio, which is required by law to redraw its House map, party strategists believe they can gain two or three seats.
• In Missouri, Republicans believe they can pick up another seat.

Zoom in: Gov. Greg Abbott and other Texas Republicans were at first hesitant to take up redistricting, the Texas Tribune reported. After Trump's call to Abbott, it appeared on the special session agenda.

• Texas Democrats have limited options to push back, but have considered breaking quorum to prevent a vote on the issue.
• Republicans are looking to South Texas after Trump performed well with Latino voters there.
• It could backfire: Adding Democratic voters to GOP districts to build more Republican districts elsewhere risks turning safe seats into competitive races, said Jon Taylor, department chair and political science professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio.

The other side: Democrats, led by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, have vowed to punch back by drawing roughly as many new Democratic seats.

• Newsom will need to act fast. In his case, he's suggested calling a special election to green light redistricting ahead of 2026.

• Newsom hosted California and Texas lawmakers in Sacramento on Friday to plot strategy.
• Other big Democratic states — such as New York, New Jersey and Illinois — also have redistricting limits in their state constitutions. They'll need courts to help, or push through fast amendments.

Between the lines: The White House has no bigger priority in the midterms than keeping the House.

• "The battlefield is extremely narrow compared to 10 or 20 years ago. To the extent the GOP can widen it, on favorable terms, that's a huge advantage," said Matt Gorman, a former National Republican Congressional Committee official.
• Should Democrats seize the lower chamber, it would paralyze Trump's legislative agenda for his final two years in office and potentially lead to him getting impeached.
• Trump was impeached following the 2018 midterms, when Democrats won the House majority.

The bottom line: There's already a warning sign for Republicans as they weigh redistricting.

• The top concern among Texas voters is no longer immigration or border security, according to the Texas Politics Project Poll in June.
• It's now "political corruption/leadership."