New estimate shows 10 million to lose health coverage under GOP law
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Almost 2 million fewer people will lose their health coverage under Republicans' big domestic policy law than originally projected after a provision cracking down on undocumented immigrants was dropped, congressional scorekeepers said Monday.
Why it matters: The Congressional Budget Office estimate of 10 million uninsured people still illustrates the fallout from sweeping changes to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act in the law and the attacks Democrats will make heading into next year's midterm elections.
Driving the news: The CBO estimate is down from the 11.8 million people that were projected to lose coverage under an earlier version of the legislation.
- The main reason for the difference is that a provision that would have cut federal payments to states that covered undocumented immigrants was found to violate Senate rules and was dropped from the final version.
- Much of the projected loss in coverage comes from new Medicaid work requirements in the law. Republicans argue that able-bodied adults should be working, but Democrats counter that state-level experience shows many people are, in fact, already working and will lose coverage by getting caught up in red tape.
- The law also includes new hurdles to sign up for ACA marketplace coverage, which Republicans say are aimed at fighting fraud.
Between the lines: The CBO also found that the measure will increase the deficit by $3.4 trillion over 10 years.
- If the cost of extending the expiring Trump tax cuts is not counted, then the deficit would decrease by $366 billion over 10 years.
What's next: Democrats are pushing to extend enhanced ACA subsidies that help people afford premiums and that are expiring at the end of this year. CBO earlier found that allowing those to expire would result in 4.2 million additional uninsured.
