AI is eating venture capital, or at least its dollars

• That percentage jumps to 64% in the U.S.
• AI startups also comprise 29% of all global startups funded, and nearly 36% in the U.S.

The big picture: There's nothing new about venture capitalists skating hard to where the puck is going, particularly when it comes to a technology that looks to become ubiquitous.

• What is different, however, is the capital concentration in a small number of companies. In Q2, more than one-third of all U.S. venture dollars went to just five companies.
• We simply didn't see multibillion-dollar funding rounds during the dotcom boom, even if adjusting for inflation.

The bull case: This feels like the start of a sea change whose magnitude will drown prior tech revolutions. The reward is worth the risk.

• It's no longer just about being price agnostic. It's also about being check size agnostic, particularly in an age where incumbents like Meta are willing to spend big on AI acquisitions. Plus, SPVs can help limit portfolio concentration risk.

The bear case: Another big break with the past is that those incumbents are paying attention and playing offense, whereas prior startup surges had the element of surprise.

• There's also an argument that many of the foundational model deals look more like project finance than traditional venture capital, which means they have different return profiles.

The bottom line: Diversification is dying. Long live dominance.