Tariffs add about $82 billion in costs for midsize U.S. companies
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President Trump's tariffs add about $82 billion in total new costs for all mid-sized U.S. companies, per a new estimate — a sum that would more than double if rates return to levels seen at the height of trade tensions in April.
Why it matters: That finding, from the JPMorganChase Institute, is among the first to tally the hit to select businesses that are more likely to rely on international trade.
- It gives some insight into the magnitude of costs that could ripple out to the rest of the economy — either in the form of price hikes or slimmer margins that could force owners to shrink costs elsewhere, perhaps via layoffs.
What they're saying: "The cost amounts to 3% of their payroll — it's meaningful that they are paying that much to compensate for the tariffs," JPMorganChase Institute president Chris Wheat, a co-author of the study, tells Axios.
- The figure estimates costs under the current trade regime, which includes last month's U.S.-China negotiations.
- "As we approach the end of the pause on many steep tariff hikes that were announced on April 2nd, it has become increasingly urgent to understand which firms are the most exposed to potential costs," a companion report out Wednesday says.
State of play: The report focuses on midsize businesses — those with annual revenues between $10 million and $1 billion, which are responsible for 1 in 3 private-sector jobs.
- The sector disproportionately relies on imports from countries with the highest Trump-imposed tariff rates, including China and other Asian nations.
- "They may be bigger than the very smallest businesses, but they're not the largest — and tariffs are of a magnitude that are not easily absorbed," Wheat says.
The big picture: Still unknown is which countries will once again face the tariffs announced in early April.
- Top Trump officials say that a flurry of trade deals will be announced in the days leading up to July 9, when the pause on those "Liberation Day" tariffs expires.
- The universal tariffs announced then, including triple-digit levies on Chinese goods, added $188 billion in direct import costs to midsize firms — more than 6 times the costs imposed by the earlier tariffs in place at the start of 2025.
- Put another way, that is 7% of total payroll, on average.
The bottom line: The uncertainty about how much firms might have to pay to import future goods has employers sitting on their hands.
