Executives cautious as investors stay bullish

Global chief financial officers and investors are bracing for very different realities in the second half of 2025, per a new survey from advisory firm Teneo.

Why it matters: The divide between Wall Street and the C-suite — which has better first-hand knowledge of company fundamentals that drive earnings — could be a signal that investors are trading on vibes more than reality.

By the numbers: While 78% of money managers expect the global economy to improve in the back half of the year, per Teneo, only 43% of CFOs agree.

Between the lines: The CFOs surveyed are making significant moves following consistent policy shifts from the Trump administration.

• 86% are adjusting supply chains in response to economic challenges including tariffs, 84% report recent and continued changes to hiring, and nearly 25% are lowering earnings guidance due to policy uncertainty.

Zoom out: The decisions CFOs are making could affect not just individual company profits, but also the economic data driving decisions made by the Federal Reserve.

• 81% of CFOs surveyed report changes to administrative expenses, which include labor. If executives are trimming workers, hours offered, salaries or other personnel spending, that could show up in labor market data.

Yes, but: Capital expenditures remain strong, with half of the CFOs surveyed saying artificial intelligence is the driving force behind increased spending.

• This could be a signal that executives are cutting costs in some parts of the business to fund tech expansion in others.
• Tech disruption was also cited as the main catalyst for mergers and acquisitions, per the 132 global CFOs surveyed.

The intrigue: Only 7% of CFOs ranked buybacks as their first priority in terms of capital allocation, compared with 26% of investors.

• But S&P 500 buybacks actually hit a quarterly record in the first three months of 2025, according to Charles Schwab.

Zoom in: CFOs based in the U.S. see a different path ahead for lower interest rates than CFOs abroad. 40% of global CFOs see rates rising over the next six months, while 77% of U.K. CFOs expect further cuts.

• The survey wrapped at the end of May, before the stock market started to price in more than 90% odds of a rate cut by September.

The bottom line: While investors are leaning into the market rally, CFOs may be more cautious, hedging against policy uncertainty or economic slowdown while eyeing AI as an opportunity they can't afford to miss.