Trump urges "drill, baby, drill," but U.S. producers are cautious
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Oil pumpjacks near Crane, Texas. Photo: Justin Hamel/Bloomberg via Getty Images
President Trump on Monday offered a stark directive via Truth Social: "To The Department of Energy: DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!! And I mean NOW!!!"
Why it matters: Oil prices have climbed during the Israel-Iran conflict, which will eventually filter through to U.S. gasoline costs.
Reality check: The Energy Department and other resource agencies don't make output decisions.
- Private companies do that, though federal regulations, trade policies, leasing and other federal decisions can affect production on various timescales.
The big picture: U.S. output growth has stagnated this year amid producers' caution during a stretch of lower prices before the conflict, ample global supplies, tariff uncertainty, and just modest global demand growth.
- The Energy Department's independent stats arm and some other analysts project a decline in 2026 from this year's record average levels.
State of play: In a separate post, Trump said "EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I'M WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT!"
- A senior administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity told Axios that "key oil market factors," "many tools" at Trump's disposal and his "commitment to peace through strength" should be "reassuring to the market."
- "We currently are not seeing interruptions to oil flows, but are continuing to monitor the situation closely and coordinate with key oil-producing partners," the official said.
Friction point: The administration official criticized the Biden administration's "bungled attempt to artificially lower prices" with large releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
- The official contrasted it with claims that Trump is using other tools to "maintain lower prices," boost security and maintain "dominance," but did not flatly rule out using the stockpile.
The other side: The Biden administration has said its emergency sales in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine "calmed global markets and protected American businesses and consumers with a reliable supply of fuel."
What they're saying: Oil analyst Clay Seigle said it's not surprising to see Trump hoping for more U.S. production "as the Mideast escalation has added about $10 to prices that were previously weighed down by economic concerns from the trade war."
- The Energy Department didn't immediately respond to an inquiry about Trump's post.
Yes, but: "Producing companies don't make decisions based on day-to-day headlines, or presidential posts," Seigle, a senior fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said via email.
- "They decide capital spending programs (including drilling and fracking) based on profitability and shareholder returns, and Trump's $50 oil price target is a big disincentive."
What we're watching: The domestic output trajectory in the U.S., by far the world's largest producer.
- The latest outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration — issued before the current Israel-Iran conflict — output dipping in the second half of 2025, and a very small year-over-year drop in 2026.
- But the monthly outlooks are basically written in faint pencil, and shift around based on changes in the macro-environment.
Editor's note: This article has been updated with comment from a Trump administration official.
