Trump cuts threaten jobs, inflation data collection
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Illustration: Maura Losch/Axios
The U.S. government produces vast quantities of data about what's happening in every corner of the economy.
- Its ability to do so is facing threats, both from long-running challenges and the impact of Trump administration policies.
The big picture: The agencies that carry out the survey work and other data collection underlying GDP, employment, inflation, and other federal statistics are facing longstanding funding strains, falling survey response rates, and now further federal cutbacks.
- There's no evidence that the reliability of the major data points — the ones that drive Wall Street swings and are relied upon by policymakers — is in question.
- But signs of tension are emerging.
State of play: This spring, the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended data collection for the Consumer Price Index in three midsize cities (Lincoln, Nebraska; Provo, Utah; and Buffalo, New York). It also eliminated the calculation of 350 subindexes that are part of the Producer Price Index.
- In March, the administration shuttered two outside advisory panels of experts: the Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee and the Bureau of Economic Analysis Advisory Committee.
- Jobs involving survey work and other data collection tend to have high turnover, so a federal hiring freeze means staffing strains are just due to normal attrition, former officials said.
By the numbers: According to a report by the American Statistical Association last year, flagging long-running challenges with collecting economic and other stats, the BLS budget has fallen 19% in inflation-adjusted terms since 2009.
- President Trump's 2026 budget proposal cuts the BLS budget by another 8%.
What they're saying: "They're doing things like reducing the granularity of some of their programs," Erica Groshen, a former BLS commissioner, tells our colleague Emily Peck.
- "They have fewer resources to throw at keeping response rates up," says Groshen, now at the Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations.
Of note: The administration also proposes merging the BLS (part of the Labor Department) and the BEA and Census (both part of Commerce) into a single statistics agency. There is some merit to the idea, former officials said.
- "There are good reasons to do it," Jed Kolko, a former undersecretary for economic affairs at the Commerce Department, tells Axios. "If you were to design the system from scratch, you would probably have a statistical department that includes most or all of the statistical agencies within the federal government."
- That assumes that the combined agency would not be more vulnerable to major funding cuts or political meddling.
- "What consolidation would mean for resourcing and independence matters more than the abstract org chart question of 'is it rational for them to be together or not?'" Kolko says.
