U.S., global growth outlooks slashed on tariff impacts

What they're saying: "Substantial increases in trade barriers, tighter financial conditions, weakened business and consumer confidence, and elevated policy uncertainty all pose significant risks to growth," the OECD's report said.

• "If these trends continue, they could substantially dampen economic prospects."

By the numbers: The group lowered its global GDP growth forecast to 2.9% for 2025 from the 3.1% it projected in March, and to 2.9% from 3% for 2026.

• For the U.S., it now forecasts growth of 1.6% this year and 1.5% next year, from 2.2% and 1.6% previously.

Between the lines: Among other risks, the group also flagged a heightened risk of persistent inflation.

• OECD-wide inflation for the group's 38 member countries is now expected to be 4.2% this year, a half-point higher than the outlook just six months ago.

Yes, but: The forecast hinges on perhaps the most uncertain question in global politics today — whether tariffs stick around, and at their current rates.

• "[A]n early reversal of recent trade barriers could boost economic growth and help ease inflationary pressures," the report notes.

Of note: Despite the dour overall mood, the new OECD report still projects every member country's economy growing at least slightly this year, except for Austria — and all, including Austria, growing in 2026.