The global economy's trade paralysis
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
At any moment, a Truth Social post — and now a court ruling — can upend the global trade system.
Why it matters: The world economy has never seen anything like this. The tariff legal fight injects new uncertainty into what was already a historically unpredictable situation.
- Businesses are in limbo about what it will cost to bring goods into the country.
- Foreign officials see new leverage in trade talks that could drag out even longer.
- The billions in tariff revenue expected to help offset the cost of President Trump's tax bill could all but vanish.
What they're saying: "One day it makes sense to ship and the next day it doesn't," a port official tells Axios.
The big picture: Economists expected front-loading on steroids — businesses would take advantage of a tariff halt and rush to import goods, which could push off the risk of shortages and consumer price hikes.
- Never mind all that now.
Driving the news: The Court of International Trade issued a late-night ruling on Wednesday that blocked many of Trump's sweeping tariffs.
- Another shocker came less than 24 hours later. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled the import levies could remain, as it reviews arguments from both sides.
- "As the courts now play a larger role in the outcome of Trump's tariffs, trade policy uncertainty will only become more entrenched, stifling business investment and consumer spending on durable goods," Bernard Yaros, an economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note.
The intrigue: Europe's trade delegation was in Washington this week, just as it became clear courts could kill many of the tariffs that brought them to the negotiating table in the first place.
- "It makes no sense to negotiate about that," Bernd Lange, a key European Parliament lawmaker leading the trade delegation, told Axios, referring to the "Liberation Day" tariffs that might ultimately be illegal.
- "I guess now we have a better position for negotiation," Lange said just minutes before the appeals court issued its stay — a sign of how quickly dynamics can change.
- Lange admitted that he has started waking up a half-hour earlier since Trump was inaugurated "to follow the news coming from the United States." He is on Truth Social.
The other side: The economic threat of steep tariffs still lingers.
- The Trump administration could still impose tariffs under the same authorities officials previously used to impose levies on steel, aluminum and autos.
- Those powers require more processes to activate, though Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has said he is moving in "Trump time" to carry them out.
- While the Court of International Trade said Trump did not have unlimited tariff powers, the ruling was more ambiguous about whether he could impose some tariffs, Ilya Somin, one of the lawyers who represented small businesses in the case, said.
The bottom line: Economic uncertainty was already at peak levels.
- It just got worse.
