Q&A with Mary Meeker on the AI revolution
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Photo Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios. Photo: Michael Kovac/Getty Images for Vanity Fair
Mary Meeker, the famed internet analyst turned venture capitalist, on Friday published her first Trends report since 2019 — focused on the AI revolution.
- Silicon Valley execs and investors are sure to pour over all 340 pages, but Axios chatted with Meeker this morning to distill some top takeaways.
What follows is an edited version of our conversation:
Axios: What was the most important thing you learned?
Meeker: "We've never seen anything like the user growth of ChatGPT, particularly outside the U.S., and it shows how the global dynamics of tech and distribution have changed.
- I wasn't around for the evolution of the mainframe or mini-computer, but have read up on it and was around for the PC, desktop internet, mobile internet, cloud, and now AI. This is such a faster pace of change.
- It's also fascinating to imagine what might have happened if Microsoft hadn't come in and given OpenAI capital and focused them on its cloud platform. Google was very early in AI, but it couldn't have launched a product that hallucinated like OpenAI did. Startups can do crazy things."
Does OpenAI have an insurmountable lead, at least in terms of consumer AI?
"Early leaders fail when they fall behind on innovation or price themselves out of the market, but OpenAI shows no signs of doing either. I think it and ChatGPT will be around for a long time.
- That said, they also have intense competition the likes of which we've never seen before. Both startups and incumbents. Everyone is engaged. It's a period for lots of wealth creation and wealth destruction."
How should early-stage VCs try to suss out potential winners from losers?
"I recently rewatched one of Steve Ballmer's speeches at an early Windows conference where he kept repeating the word 'developers.' And he's right, that the companies that get the best developers often win. It's got to be the focus."
If people are key, and the U.S. is in a race with China, what do you think about the Trump administration's recent moves to block foreigners from studying here?
"America has to be a place where the brightest people in the world want to come ... Our tech ecosystem would not be where it is today without a lot of first-generation immigrants and even more second-generation immigrants.
- I think this administration has shown an ability to make foundational calls, but then also to change. And I go back to the first Trump administration and its focus on immigrants who could really contribute to America in positive ways.
- It would be in err to tilt too far, and I hope the right decisions are made."
