Trump's tough choices: Endorse key senators or please MAGA

Zoom in: The MAGA base is thirsting to take down Texas Sen. John Cornyn and North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis, both of whom have crossed the president.

• It's a risk, however. Several far-right, Trump-endorsed congressional candidates have coasted to the GOP nomination, in recent years, only to lose the general election.
• MAGA activists say that for Trump and their movement, it's worth the risk.
• "MAGA is sick of RINOs, especially in states Trump won. And in a state like Texas, it's inexcusable," Jack Posobiec, a pro-Trump influencer, told Axios.

Trump allies also are eager to take on Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, who voted to impeach Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot. But Louisiana is safer for Republicans than Texas and North Carolina, where Democrats are lining up strong candidates.

Zoom out: Trump may wait until next year to weigh in. By holding off, he maintains leverage over Cornyn and Tillis, whose support he needs to pass his legislative agenda.

• Trump's desire to back insurgents also could be slowed by his close working relationship with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), who has encouraged Trump to get behind his members.
• Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene's announcement Friday that she won't run for Senate likely removed another tough call for Trump.
• If Greene had run, Trump would've had to decide whether to endorse a loyal ally who polling suggests would get "smoked" in a general election against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff, said one top Republican who has reviewed survey data.
• The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Here are Trump's options in Texas and North Carolina:

Texas

The backstory: Pro-Trump forces are targeting Cornyn, an establishment Republican who has criticized Trump over issues such as the deficit and border security.

• Prominent MAGA figures Steve Bannon and Charlie Kirk have talked up state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Trump loyalist who helped the president in his failed effort to overturn his loss in the 2020 election.
• Paxton's team has been seeking an endorsement from Trump.

Behind the scenes: The lobbying for Trump's backing has been intense. A pro-Paxton group last weekend ran anti-Cornyn ads in Palm Beach, Fla., hoping Trump would see them while staying at his Mar-a-Lago resort.

• Cornyn has been making a point of showing solidarity with the president, including by posting a picture of himself on social media reading Trump's book "The Art of the Deal."
• He's also tapped Tony Fabrizio, a top Trump 2024 campaign strategist, as an adviser.
• Thune and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Tim Scott have urged Trump to back Cornyn, according to a person familiar with the discussions.

Zoom out: Top Republicans are worried about Trump endorsing Paxton.

• They argue that Paxton — a controversial figure in Texas politics who in 2023 was impeached by the state House on bribery and corruption charges, then acquitted by the state Senate — would have a harder time winning the general election than Cornyn would.
• Former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who ran an unsuccessful 2024 Senate campaign but outran Kamala Harris in Texas, is viewed as a likely candidate.

• A recent poll by the conservative Senate Leadership Fund super PAC showed Paxton leading Cornyn by 15 points in a GOP primary — but narrowly losing a hypothetical general election against Allred, according to two people familiar with the survey. (A person familiar with the poll said Cornyn's numbers jumped when respondents learned more about his record.)

North Carolina

The backstory: Tillis infuriated MAGA world this week when he sank Trump's nomination of Ed Martin to be U.S. attorney for D.C.

• Tillis's reasoning: Martin showed leniency toward the Jan. 6 rioters while serving in an interim capacity.
• "A coup by Thom Tillis!" Mike Cernovich, an influential pro-Trump activist, posted on X.
• Kirk warned that Trump supporters would stay home and not vote for Tillis in a general election. "Never take MAGA for granted," Kirk posted.

Behind the scenes: Tillis — who like Cornyn has long been associated with the establishment wing of the GOP — also rankled Trump's orbit early this year when he withheld support for Pete Hegseth's confirmation as defense secretary until the last minute.

• Trump at one point asked members of North Carolina's congressional delegation aboard Air Force One whether they'd be interested in waging a primary challenge to Tillis, a person familiar with the exchange said.

Zoom out: Republicans worry that if Trump endorses a primary challenge to Tillis, it could weaken the party in a tough general election.

• There is one potential Republican candidate guaranteed to get Trump's attention: His daughter-in-law Lara Trump, a former co-chair of the Republican National Committee. She hasn't ruled out a run.
• Democrats have been courting Roy Cooper, a popular former governor, who appears increasingly likely to run.

Zoom in: Tillis has been in close touch with the White House — which could save him from getting a Trump-backed primary challenge, two people close to the administration said.

• The senator gave a heads-up to Trump's team about his plans to oppose Martin's nomination, rather than blindsiding them.

Reality check: The question is whether Trump will feel the need to move against Tillis if he continues to cross the White House.