Why the Trump meme coin is bad news for buyers
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Very soon, 40 million Official Trump meme coins will be unlocked, and they are very likely to be sold into the market as quickly as possible — which is bad news for anyone who buys.
Why it matters: The launch of the meme coin on the Friday before Inauguration Day caused a groundswell of retail enthusiasm, but one that really only benefited savvy traders and cost many other early buyers a collective $2 billion.
What's happening: The new tokens are set to become available to sell or transfer three months after the initial Jan. 17 launch, according to Alex Fatuliaj, a co-founder of Simplicity Group, a firm that helps crypto startups sort out how to allocate tokens and when (also known as "tokenomics").
- 200 million Official Trump tokens, or 20% of the total supply, are already circulating. The 40 million new coins will unlock under the control of the two Trump Organization affiliates that own the rest of the unvested supply.
- This will also begin a daily unlock of the remaining tokens, which will last for the next two years, according to its release schedule.
State of play: Official Trump currently trades around $8.
- At that price, the 40 million soon-to-be-unlocked coins represent around $320 million worth of the meme coin.
- Yes, but: It's unlikely that all of them would fetch that price. If the unlocked coins are sold into the market it will be a dilutive event, which typically causes prices to drop.
Between the lines: Fatuliaj believes these tokens are almost certainly going to be sold.
- "There is substantial liquidity in the market ... but it's nowhere near enough able to absorb $320M worth of selling," he tells Axios.
- Even so, any sales of additional tokens into the market is likely to put downward pressure on price, he noted.
What we're watching: The exact date of the unlock is unclear, but it should happen around April 17. Fatuliaj warns of a big early sell that's likely to tank the price hard, predicting a quick drop to $7 or even $6 soon.
- By the end May, the price is likely to fall as far as $3, he expects.
By the numbers. Official Trump price has trended down since its January launch, and is off nearly 90% from its brief all-time high of $73.43. At the start of February, it was selling for $23.31. Over the last two weeks, the price has dropped another 20%.
- Over 600,000 people hold the token according to on-chain data, with more than half of all transactions at under $1,000 over the last three months.
- The number of holders is likely much higher, though we can't see individual holdings within centralized exchanges. And Official Trump trades on nearly all the major ones.
What they're saying: Early on, we waited to see if Fight Fight Fight, LLC, the Trump Organization subsidiary responsible for the meme coin, might offer services or benefits to drive value to the token, but we haven't seen evidence of that so far.
- The Trump Organization did not respond to a request for comment on its plans for the unlocked tokens, or on any plans to drive additional value to Official Trump tokens. Fight Fight Fight could not be reached for comment.
- The president has, however, posted about his namesake token on his social media site.
