Apr 10, 2025 - Business

UAW profit-sharing checks expected to plunge from Trump auto tariffs

Nathan Bomey

A person in a red hat stands and applauds next to a bush and other applauding people — United Auto Workers (UAW) members applaud as President Trump speaks during a "Make America Wealthy Again" trade announcement event in the Rose Garden at the White House on April 2. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

UAW workers are poised to stomach thousands of dollars in reduced payments because of President Trump's auto tariffs, according to new estimates.

Why it matters: The left-leaning union is supporting the Republican's auto tariffs, saying free trade hurts American manufacturing and arguing that the automakers can afford to absorb the financial blow.

Between the lines: The average hourly UAW-represented worker for General Motors, Ford and Stellantis will get a profit-sharing check reduction of anywhere from $1,000 to more than $5,000, according to Anderson Economic Group.

"For some automakers, with Stellantis being the most vulnerable at the current time, the effects of a prolonged tariff war could lead to operating losses that cause payouts to go to zero," the Michigan-based firm estimates in a new report.

How it works: UAW autoworkers get annual profit-sharing checks based on the North American profits of their employers.

That's particularly problematic for union members because Trump's tariffs are expected to hit North American profits hard.
Trump this week paused his reciprocal tariffs, except on China, but maintained his 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts.

Zoom in: Anderson Economic Group based its estimate on a projection of lower sales and higher costs for the automakers, collectively leading to a reduction of more than $5 billion in adjusted earnings in 2025.

The economists projected a 1-million unit decline in annual new vehicle sales in the U.S. — a figure that includes non-UAW-represented automakers.
The group conducted the analysis at the request of the Detroit Free Press, spokesperson Lisa Wootton Booth said.

"Some Wall Street analysts who reviewed Anderson's math also agreed with it, with some saying it's likely conservative," the Free Press reported.

The other side: The UAW — which did not immediately respond to a request for comment — has argued that its workers and the union movement will win in the long run from increased tariffs.

"These tariffs are a major step in the right direction for autoworkers and blue-collar communities across the country, and it is now on the automakers, from the Big Three to Volkswagen and beyond, to bring back good union jobs to the U.S," UAW president Shawn Fain said in a recent statement.

By the numbers: This year's profit-sharing checks for UAW-represented workers, based on 2024 earnings, were:

$14,500 at GM.
$10,208 at Ford.
$3,780 at Stellantis.

Add Axios on Google

UAW profit-sharing checks expected to plunge from Trump auto tariffs

What to read next