Dealmakers still cautious after Trump's tariff backtrack

• Most of these are long-term investments where returns will be realized long after 90 days from now.
• It's just impossible to know what the rules of the road will be, or even find much directional signal. We do now know that Trump will cave if the heat begins to scorch, but there's still a ton of ROI variance in those middle temperatures.

Zoom in: It's much easier to pause a process than to restart one, and few bankers will have interest in stalling out a second time. Reengagement will take some time.

• We know of at least eight large U.S. IPOs that were delayed, plus a handful of mergers and buyout financings.
• And a reminder that Trump's announcement also included an escalation of trade tensions with China, increasing tariffs there to 125%. No one has any idea yet how that situation will be resolved, although it does suggest that there won't be a TikTok deal any time soon.

Behind the scenes: Trump's move also raises major questions about the giant tax package being negotiated, since the White House had promised GOP congresspeople that revenue from high tariffs would offset tax cuts.

• Could make it much harder to keep the carried interest loophole open.

The bottom line: It's safer to look at your stock portfolios again. But not to assume that the bumpy ride is over.