Uber and Lyft drivers aren't going away

As robotaxi services begin to spread across America, ride-hailing drivers could worry that they'll be pushed aside in favor of robots — or at least that their incomes will shrink.

Why it matters: Like manufacturing, retailing and other industries, transportation is a prime target for automation.

Reality check: Cashiers aren't going away, and neither are factory workers or Uber drivers.

• Instead, they'll work alongside robots for the foreseeable future.

Driving the news: Uber and Lyft are starting to offer robotaxis as a ride option in select cities, joining Waymo, which is already in San Francisco, Los Angeles and Phoenix.

• In the beginning, these robotaxis will be confined to certain neighborhoods and will only operate in optimal conditions.
• But they'll help Uber and Lyft manage their networks more efficiently, such as during peak demand, when prices often surge.
• Longer term, as technology advances and costs come down, robotaxis could also mean cheaper fares for riders.

By the numbers: Uber controls about 75% of the U.S. ride-hailing market; Lyft owns the rest.

• Drivers on both networks earn about $23 per hour, according to Gridwise Analytics, which collects driver data to track the gig economy.
• Uber drivers earn an average of $513 per week, while Lyft drivers gross $318.

Where it stands: So far, the presence of robotaxis in San Francisco, LA and Phoenix hasn't affected ride-hailing drivers much, Gridwise found.

• "Drivers are still working at the same pace, getting the same incentives, and taking as many trips as before," co-founder and CEO Ryan Green tells Axios.

The big picture: The hassles and costs of owning a car in urban areas have fueled the growth of ride-hailing platforms, especially among younger people.

• That growth is expected to accelerate sharply over the next 15 years, as more people turn to ride-hailing for their daily commutes instead of just occasional use, say forecasters at S&P Global Mobility.
• "Gen Z and Gen Alpha have a different mindset when it comes to mobility," Mario Franjicevic, a principal research analyst at the firm, tells Axios.
• "They don't own CDs or vinyl. They don't own DVDs. They subscribe to Netflix and Spotify. They will do the same with mobility. Owning a car is not a status symbol to them."

• By 2040, S&P Global Mobility is projecting 15 billion ride-hailing trips a year in the U.S., up from 3.6 billion in 2024.

The intrigue: About half of those trips will be in robotaxis; the other half will still be driven by humans.

Between the lines: Jeremy Bird, Lyft's executive vice president of driver experience, described three phases of the robotaxi transition in a recent blog post.

• Adoption: Robotaxis are still a novelty. There aren't enough of them to meet a city's transportation needs, and they can't operate in certain weather conditions or on certain roads. (That's where we are today.)
• Hybrid network: Some riders will select robotaxis, but others will still prefer a human driver for extra assistance or premium service.
• Lyft-ready network: Anyone's automated car can be deployed on the ride-hailing network to generate income when they're not using it. Entrepreneurial drivers could run an entire fleet of robotaxis on Lyft.

The bottom line: The ride-hailing pie is still growing, and robotaxis aren't going to eat it all.