Apr 4, 2025 - Business
Tariffs cause new tumult for dealmakers
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
This has been a whipsaw week for understanding deal trends.
The big picture: On Tuesday we got first-quarter data, which showed a 15% increase in global M&A over Q1 2024 and a 14% decline for U.S. M&A.
- Digging a bit deeper, however, showed that both the global and U.S. markets got busier as the quarter progressed. Particularly when it came to large mergers.
- That means we entered Q2 with momentum. Not the raucous energy that many dealmakers expected after Trump got elected, but still up and to the right.
State of play: Wednesday may have changed everything.
- It's way too early to know if we're at the start of a protracted trade war that wrecks global economies, or what will prove to be a short-lived skirmish.
- Such tumult, however, becomes a brick wall for many companies planning long-term investments like acquisitions. Plus, sellers may hold back while their valuations plunge.
- It also creates major challenges for the booming AI market, and everything that springs from it, in terms of data center construction.
- Uncertainty is the only certainty. But there are degrees to that statement, and right now the global economy is running a fever.
What they're saying: "We've gone from animal spirits to animal hibernation," Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.), former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, yesterday told CNBC.
- One Twitter user replied that it might be closer to "animal abuse."
The bottom line: A top bank exec told Axios in January that everyone would have a much better sense of the deal market during Milken than during Davos. That seems to be bearing out.
