Foreign visits into the U.S. fell off a cliff in March
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Foreign arrivals into major U.S. airports tumbled in mid-to-late March compared to the same time last year, based on customs pass-through data.
Why it matters: The findings suggest a sudden reluctance to visit the U.S. isn't a purely Canadian phenomenon and should sound alarm bells for the country's $1 trillion-plus travel industry.
Driving the news: The number of foreigners passing through customs at the 10 busiest U.S. airports fell by over 20% year over year toward late March, based on a seven-day rolling average.
- A sight uptick followed, but the number was still down 18.4% as of March 28 versus the same time last year.
- Compare that to the number of U.S. citizens returning to the country, which was up nearly 14% by late March from the year earlier.
Context: Spring break may have played a role here, and many people book trips in advance with little flexibility.
Between the lines: Trade wars, a volatile economic and political climate and fears of detainment or harassment may be dissuading foreigners from visiting the U.S.
- Several American allies, including Canada, France, Germany and others, recently issued new travel warnings or advisories about U.S. travel.
- Some of those warnings focus on transgender and nonbinary travelers, following President Trump's recent order mandating that passports "accurately reflect the holder's sex," which his administration says is "not changeable."
What they're saying: "We're certainly starting to hear reports from international airlines about a softening of demand to the U.S.," Sean Cudahy, aviation reporter at The Points Guy, tells Axios via email.
- "Based on some of the route cuts and overall sentiment we're hearing from airlines, I wouldn't be surprised to see the arrivals rates for international travelers drop even further in the coming weeks."
Zoom in: Some of the "divergence" between foreign arrivals and U.S. returnees (charted above) "is likely attributable to tighter immigration policy," reads a March 31 Goldman Sachs note.
- "But the timing of the pullback in foreign arrivals — which emerged after tariff news escalated in both early February and early March — suggests that a more antagonistic policy stance by the Trump administration is contributing to a voluntary decline in visits."
Threat level: Goldman predicts a pullback in foreign tourism plus boycotts of American goods abroad will cause a "modest drag" on U.S. GDP of about 0.1%.
- "Although small, this headwind provides an additional reason why U.S. GDP growth will likely underperform consensus expectations in 2025," reads the note.
What's next: Goldman's note predates Trump's sweeping new tariffs issued Wednesday, which stand to uproot the global economic order in unpredictable and chaotic ways.
- If those tariffs hold, they could amplify any potential hit to U.S. travel businesses — but their impact remains difficult if not impossible to predict.
