3 takeaways from Wisconsin and the Florida special elections

• Republicans kept the House seat in Florida formerly held by national security adviser Mike Waltz, with Randy Fine holding off Democrat Josh Weil.
• Republicans also held the Florida seat formerly held by Rep. Matt Gaetz before he resigned from Congress in November. Jimmy Patronis defeated Democratic candidate Gay Valimont.

1. 2026 looks scary for MAGA without Trump on the ballot.

• Republican House candidates in Florida fell far short of Trump's performance in November. The margins of victory for Patronis and Fine were about half of the margins for Waltz and Gaetz.
• National Republicans needed to wage an 11th-hour blitz, and Trump needed to host a tele-rally, to get Fine over the finish line. Republicans were deeply frustrated with Fine, who they criticized for running a lackluster campaign.
• Republicans lost in Wisconsin, even with $25 million poured in by Elon Musk, the wealthiest person in the world and the face of DOGE. Musk campaigned in Wisconsin and cast the race in apocalyptic terms.

2. Democrats are flooding cash into races

• In FL-1, Patronis was outraised 3-1.
• In FL-6, Fine was outraised by nearly 10-1.

• In Wisconsin, Crawford outraised Schimel nearly 2-1.

3. Republicans dodged a bullet in Florida

• Last week Republicans were sweating the race for Waltz's seat, where a poll conducted by Trump strategist Tony Fabrizio showed Fine narrowly trailing. But Fine won by 15 points.
• A Florida defeat would have raised alarms among Republicans about the political impact of Trump's agenda.
• Speaker Mike Johnson's narrow House majority won't shrink, and there won't be headlines about a special election shocker.