A 3-minute cheat sheet for your 2025 men's March Madness bracket
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Auburn and senior forward Johni Broome are the No. 1 overall seed in this year's NCAA Tournament. Photo: Matthew Maxey/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images via Getty Images
You shouldn't stress about filling out your office bracket this week, as one of the best things about March Madness is that previous knowledge of the sport is not necessarily correlated with success.
Why it matters: It probably doesn't! Nobody has ever filled out a perfect bracket and, as far as the NCAA can tell, only one person has ever even picked perfectly through the Sweet 16.
- Powerhouses with future NBA players are routinely upset by tiny schools that get hot, especially in the early rounds.
But if you are serious about beating Brad in sales this year, there are a few tips to follow.
Don't get cute
While some years are wackier than others, top seeds are historically a good bet to win it all. According to Bracket Research, 34 of 39 winners of the NCAA Tournament going back to 1985 were 1, 2, or 3-seeds — and 25 were No. 1 seeds.
- This year, the four No. 1 seeds are Auburn (South region), Duke (East), Houston (Midwest) and Florida (West).
Commit to a Cinderella
You should still pick upsets in the early rounds. The common advice will be take No. 12 seeds over No. 5 seeds, as they've won 35% of the time in the first round.
- One 12 seed that already looks to be a popular pick: UC San Diego over Michigan in Denver.
Of note: No. 15 seeds have upset No. 2 seeds 11 times since 1985.
Watch the injuries
Duke, which entered the ACC Tournament No. 1 in the AP Top 25 poll, lost star forwards Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown to injuries during the tournament.
- The NCAA seemed to have confidence in at least Flagg's return, as the Blue Devils still earned a No. 1 seed, but do you?
Follow the threes
An impressive 290 teams have fired off 20 or more 3-point attempts per game this season, which is 34 more teams than last season and the highest of all time, per the NCAA.
The intrigue: That could mean more upsets, as lower-seeded teams could score in bunches out of nowhere.
- If you want to swim against the current: Michigan State, a No. 2 seed in the South, has now made the NCAA Tournament 27 straight times and attempts just over 19 3-pointers per game.
First Four to the second round
The First Four games, which give the four lowest-ranked teams in the field a chance to make the 64-team bracket, are Tuesday and Wednesday.
- You don't need to pick the First Four games, as most brackets will automatically include the winner, but you should pick at least one to win in the first round of 64 — it's happened every year since the First Four's inception in 2011 except for 2019.
For your Final Four
Conference tournament results can be helpful for the first rounds, but not once we get to the Final Four.
- Of the last 11 winners, eight did not win their conference tournaments.
The bottom line: The first round begins Thursday. Upsets are common and most days, anything can happen.
- So pick your bracket based on colors, or which mascot would win in a fight, or where your exes live. Follow your heart and fly close to the sun. It's March, and you earned it.
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