BlackRock's Panama Canal deal isn't a sure bet

• Meanwhile, NBC News reports that President Trump has "directed the U.S. military to draw up options to increase the American troop presence in Panama ... [including] the less likely option of U.S. troops' seizing the Panama Canal by force."

Zoom in: BlackRock's $22.8 billion agreement with CK Hutchinson, announced on March 4, is broken up into two parts.

• The first covers two ports, one on either side of the Panama canal, and only was signed in principle. There's an April 2 deadline for definitive paperwork.
• The second covers another 43 ports in 23 countries, and would seem to be able to proceed even if the Panama piece does not.

Behind the scenes: Panama is in a pickle.

• On the one hand, it's hard to see how it could allow a U.S. entity to take control of the ports when a U.S. invasion in being considered. The domestic politics are just too fraught.
• On the other, Panama also might be worried that blocking the deal could give Trump pretext to invade — claiming that it's confirmation of Chinese control over the canal.

The big picture: BlackRock, which declined comment, is looking more and more like a supporting player in its own blockbuster.

• BlackRock CEO Larry Fink would laugh at the idea of being considered a Trojan Horse for Trump, who couldn't even bring himself to utter the firm's name during last week's address to Congress.
• But that doesn't lessen the fears in Panama. Nor the pressure that Beijing is beginning to put on CK Hutchinson, which plans to retain its Hong Kong and Mainland China ports.

The bottom line: Panama, we have a problem.