German election keeps key climate player in the game
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Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios
The Christian Democratic Union Party's win in Germany ensures that Europe's biggest economy is likely to continue to lead on climate change — though with a different framing and focus.
Why it matters: Germany has taken aggressive action to lower emissions and push so-called "green" policies within the European Union and internationally.
- With the U.S. retreat from climate policy on the international stage, Germany's positions — and those of the EU overall — will take on greater importance.
State of play: Experts on Germany expect the new government to emphasize industrial policy over climate change.
- The governing coalition under Chancellor Olaf Scholz had such an emphasis on green policies that it outstripped public support, said Liana Fix, a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations.
- "In general there is a little bit of a political backlash," Fix told Axios.
- Still, Fix doesn't expect a Trumpian rollback on climate but rather a reframing and refocusing on fixing the lagging economy.
The CDU-led government is expected to be friendlier to nuclear power, following the decision after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster to close the country's fleet of power plants.
- The government is likely to favor restarting mothballed plants, given the country's power challenges following the cutoff of Russian natural gas in the wake of the Ukraine conflict.
Zoom in: The ascension of Friedrich Merz as new chancellor follows a campaign in which climate change wasn't a top-tier issue.
- However, the far-right AfD party — which came in second — had run on a more skeptical climate platform, criticizing the policies put in place under Scholz and his coalition that included prominent roles for the Green Party.
The intrigue: Germany has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 65% compared to 1990 levels by 2030 and 88% below 1990 levels by 2040.
- The country seeks to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045.
- Germany also aims to phase out its last coal-fired power plant by 2038, a task made harder by shutting down its nuclear facilities.
- These goals — and the country's commitment to multilateral work on climate — aren't expected to change under the new government.
Between the lines: The shifts will be in what the government emphasizes and how it reframes climate issues, according to Linda Kalcher, executive director of Strategic Perspectives, a European think tank.
- "Both conservative and social-democrat parties committed to reaching climate neutrality by 2045," Kalcher told Axios via email. "The next government will focus on security, industrial policy, energy prices, boosting the economy and competitiveness."
- According to Fix, a top-line message from Merz is that climate policy won't take priority over economic policy.
Kalcher agreed: "The question isn't whether Germany will decarbonize, but how fast."
- "The next government must ensure the energy transition works for industry, workers, and consumers alike — otherwise, we will see a proper backlash and de-industrialization," she said.
The bottom line: The incoming government may not be as outspoken about sustainability and climate as the current one. But its policies would continue Germany's prominent climate role within the EU and beyond.
