The elusive link between Elon's politics and Tesla sales
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Photo illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios. Photos: The Washington Post, Variety via Getty Images
Is Elon Musk's political profile and BFF status with President Trump hurting Tesla sales? Maybe — but it's complicated, analysts say.
Why it matters: Tesla is by far the U.S. EV sales leader and long the world's top seller (though it has recently been trading the lead with China's BYD).
- But Musk's powerful government role — combined with his very public rightward shift in recent years — creates a really unusual situation for a sitting CEO.
State of play: Tesla saw its first full-year sales dip as a mass-market seller in 2024.
- And new Cox Automotive U.S. data estimates a nearly 16% drop in January sales compared to December, although the firm notes that Tesla sales almost always fall in January.
- Brand reputation analytics firm Caliber said in January that Tesla's "Trust & Like Score" has fallen 13 points over the past two years.
Elsewhere in the world, the FT reports that sales in Germany, where Musk is supporting a hard-right party, fell almost 60% compared to January of 2024.
- But their piece cites other factors behind lower January sales there, France and elsewhere in Europe. They include German consumers waiting for an upgraded Model Y, and lower subsidies in France and Germany.
Friction point: There have been protests at Tesla showrooms and even reports of vandalism, per various reports.
The intrigue: Cox also says used Tesla volumes on its Autotrader platform have reached an all-time high, but that likely reflects its major growth in new car sales (until last year's slight dip).
- "More new means more used," Mark Schirmer, Cox's director of industry insights & corporate communications, said in an email to reporters.
- "[C]urrent new and used sales reveals mostly normal patterns. This story is still being written," he writes.
Our thought bubble: Axios' auto expert Joann Muller notes that Tesla has grown up and now faces the same trials as legacy automakers.
- Think normal stuff like sales dipping when factories shift to new models or losing ground in a market segment you once owned when competitors arrive.
- What is unusual is bumper stickers on your customers' cars that say things like "Anti-Elon Tesla Club."
- One has to wonder what Musk is doing to protect Tesla's brand while he's busy attacking Washington's bureaucracy.
What they're saying: iSeeCars.com executive analyst Karl Brauer, in an email, said Musk has alienated many supporters over the last year.
- But Musk has "elevated his visibility and popularity with many Americans that previously had little-to-no interest in him."
The bottom line: Lots of things affect sales, including expanded competition as new EVs arrive. But Tesla's numbers can't be untethered from Musk's politics and new federal power.
- "There's no way to know if this has been a net loss or net gain in Elon supporters, though I suspect he's lost more Tesla buyers than he's gained while gaining more overall fans than he's lost," Brauer writes.
Disclosure: Cox Automotive is owned by Cox Enterprises, which is the majority owner of Axios.
