An asteroid could hit Earth in 2032. Don't panic — yet
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The chances of a 130- to 300-foot-wide asteroid hitting Earth just a few days before Christmas 2032 are increasing — but don't panic (or celebrate) just yet.
Why it matters: The near-Earth asteroid, officially named "2024 YR4," could be a regional hazard if it actually hits the planet, NASA says.
Driving the news: The odds that YR4 will hit Earth have been creeping up over the past few days, and stand at 2.1% as of Feb. 12.
- Those probably aren't numbers you'd play in Vegas, but it's still a 1-in-48 chance of impact.
Threat level: YR4 currently rates as a 3 on the 0-to-10 Torino scale, which measures asteroid collisions' potential hazards.
- That translates into possible "localized damage" — which means you wouldn't want to be near the impact zone, but this isn't considered an existential Earth-wide threat.
Reality check: YR4 was only first reported to near-Earth asteroid watchers in late January, and it's possible that its impact odds will lessen as researchers spend more time observing and learning about it and its path through space.
What they're saying: "Even though it's a very, very low impact probability, it's not often that something this size even reaches that level," Kelly Fast, acting planetary defense officer at NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office, tells Axios.
- "It's a chance to continue to bring the capabilities we have to bear to get the most information possible, to hopefully get enough information for the probability to drop to zero, to know well enough that it's going to pass the Earth safely — and if not, then to have that information also."
- "But it's so early that, at 2%, it's at that level where, okay, planetary defenders of the world, keep an eye out. But otherwise, it's not something to lose sleep over."
What's next: NASA is planning to launch the Near-Earth Object Surveyor space telescope later this decade, which will look for potentially threatening objects using infrared sensors.
- Those are better able to spot darkly-colored asteroids compared to visible light telescopes, Fast says.
- And in 2022, NASA successfully tested asteroid-deflection technology that one day could truly save our bacon — no Bruce Willis or Ben Affleck required.
