Climate and energy lessons from Biden's four years
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It's not too soon to draw big conclusions about Joe Biden's presidency, even though his legacy rests partly on how much Donald Trump unwinds his policies.
Why it matters: Biden funneled unprecedented federal resources into climate and low-carbon energy, going way, way beyond Obama-era initiatives.
A few lessons from the Biden era ...
Cash is king (or, carrots over sticks). The IRA and 2021 infrastructure law could funnel over $1 trillion in grants, loans and tax subsidies into clean projects.
- "[Biden] did it in a way that is likely to be politically durable, and that is a very big deal," Brookings Institution analyst Samantha Gross said. This is partly a quirk of federalism. "In some of these Republican states, it's just easier to build stuff," she said.
- Big federal checks may prove the most lasting major policy option. That's because of money and jobs flowing to red states, Trump's intent to scrap EPA rules, and Supreme Court decisions that look askance at sweeping regulations.
- Meanwhile, national carbon pricing is more remote than ever. Sorry, economists! Efficiency and elegance aren't synonyms for political viability.
Nobody puts oil and gas in a corner... Biden wasn't ready to abandon the geopolitical and economic leverage these dominant fuels provide, even as he imposed new restrictions.
- He touted LNG's ability to help Europe replace Russian gas, and even his much-criticized "pause" was possible because U.S. exports will surge anyway thanks to projects already approved.
- And remember Biden also pushed U.S. oil producers to pump more when prices spiked after Russia's invasion, and he opened the Strategic Petroleum Reserve floodgates too.
But Biden put the relationship on the clock. "He did have to embrace wartime fossil-fuel pragmatism," ClearView Energy Partners managing director Kevin Book said.
- But the idea is "a need for more supply now so that we could have transition later," Book said in an interview. He said Biden and European leaders decided that a "bitter medicine" approach of seeking rapid transition was politically unviable due to consumer price risks.
- "Invest now, but not for long, in fossil fuels ... we'll look back [on that] as one of the emblems of the Biden era," he said.
It's a great powers competition. The Biden era saw an unprecedented overlap between climate, trade and industrial policy.
- The IRA explicitly links some key incentives — like EV and renewable project subsidies — to use of materials sourced domestically or from allies.
- And the EV subsidies largely ban materials from China (though critics say the Treasury Department left loopholes).
Climate isn't a political heavyweight. Sure, you could quibble about the quality of Biden's IRA sales pitch.
- But there remains little evidence that climate is top-of-mind for the general electorate, even though voters generally support stronger action. There's a reason that 2024 candidate Kamala Harris spent little time on it.
Steering the ship is very hard. U.S. emissions are on a gentle downward path but nowhere near what's needed to meet U.S. climate goals.
- The IRA and Biden's regulations — which Trump hopes to reverse — are projected to drive major emissions cuts but still fall short of U.S. goals under the Paris Agreement.
What he's saying: "We've proven we don't have to choose between protecting the environment and growing the economy," Biden said in his Wednesday farewell address. "We're doing both."
