Southern California faces rare fire warning
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Computer model projection of near-surface wind gusts for tomorrow morning local time. Image: Pivotal Weather
Firefighters battling the Los Angeles-area fires are facing fresh threats nearly a week after wildfires erupted across the region, fueled by powerful Santa Ana winds in extremely dry conditions.
Threat level: The National Weather Service's LA forecast office Sunday evening issued a rare "Particularly Dangerous Situation" Red Flag Warning lasting until Wednesday at noon for parts of L.A. and Ventura counties, warning that high winds could cause "explosive fire growth."
- The weather service advised residents "to have multiple ways to receive evacuation information" and to "not do anything that could spark a fire."
- Areas under this warning don't include the Eaton Fire but cover western Santa Monica, Simi Valley, Porter Ranch, Ventura and other parts of the hard-hit region.
Zoom in: Winds during this event will be closer to a typical strong Santa Ana, at 50 mph to 70 mph instead of up to 100 mph as seen last week.
- But the east-to-west air flow will likely target areas that didn't have such strong winds last week, particularly in Ventura County.
- "THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION (PDS) FOR PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES!" the NWS said in all caps.
- Much of Southern California is under some type of Red Flag Warning, with areas of "Extremely Critical" fire weather risk — the highest category from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), from Monday through Wednesday.
- According to SPC, which issues fire weather outlooks nationally, about 740,000 people are included in the extremely critical area on Monday.
- About 8.1 million are located in the "critical" fire weather risk classification, which is just below the maximum alert level.
Between the lines: According to the NWS LA office, before this season, the "PDS" classification had only been used twice before. Both were in 2020.
- However, the warning type has only been in existence for about half a decade.
- The product is supposed to indicate rare events, but the extraordinarily dry start to the winter wet season this year has meant that the fire season has stretched much deeper into the winter than usual.
- This means it overlaps with more high wind events, which is something that climate studies show occurring with greater regularity in coming decades.
Yes, but: The Eaton and Palisades fires aren't included in the particularly dangerous situation portions of the warnings, according to the NWS, but nearby areas are and the heightened concerns relate to new fire starts as well.
The big picture: The region is suffering from hydroclimate whiplash worsened by human-caused climate change.
- Much of Southern California has received virtually no rain in the past eight months.
- And seven-day precipitation forecasts don't show measurable rain during the next week, despite January being well into the typical rainy season.
More from Axios:
- How to help victims of the Los Angeles fires
- Southern California Edison faces lawsuit over Eaton Fire
- L.A. fires could be the U.S.' worst natural disaster, Newsom says
- Climate change plays key contributing role in LA fires
Editor's note: This a breaking news story. Please check back for updates.
