M&A ekes past $3T as AI and antitrust regime fuel 2025 hopes
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios
The value of mergers and acquisitions grew across the globe this year, boosted by deals in Japan and Europe, as CEOs ended the year with more confidence than they started.
Why it matters: The uptick provides a bullish sign for the market and the broader economy as companies see multiple catalysts for dealmaking.
Yes, but: Total 2024 M&A value in the U.S., and the rest of the world, still fell below historical averages as interest rates and economic uncertainty continued to weigh on M&A and other types of deals.
By the numbers: Worldwide M&A in 2024 grew 10.6% to $3 trillion, according to LSEG.
- U.S. M&A, which comprises around half of the global share, rose 8.3% to $1.4 trillion, the data shows.
- Globally, private equity-backed deals jumped 24.9% to $670 billion, according to the data.
- Last year was the first in a decade that global M&A failed to exceed $3 trillion.
Loosening monetary policy and expectations for a lighter regulatory approach under President-elect Trump's administration have created a year-end tailwind for M&A.
- Goldman Sachs' co-head of M&A Stephan Feldgoise tells Axios that the bank expects what it describes as a normalization of the regulatory environment vs. a low-touch approach.
- "So if normalization is the word, is that more favorable from an M&A standpoint versus over the last four years? Yes. Is it, doors wide open and exuberance? No," Feldgoise says.
Zoom in: Overseas deals stood out this year. Japan's M&A value soared 44.6%, to $148.7 billion, on the back of Couche-Tard's nearly $50 billion takeover attempt of Seven & i's Holdings, a move the 7-Eleven chain owner is resisting.
- Switzerland's Amcor Plc agreed to buy Berry Global Group Inc. for about $17 billion combining two of the world's biggest makers of packaging. DSV A/S agreed to buy a Deutsche Bahn AG unit in a $15.9 billion deal that aims to make the Danish company into a logistics giant.
What's next: Advisers reckon that the AI-driven data center boom is emerging as a potential hotbed for deals in 2025.
- High tech saw $466.2 billion worth of deals this year, a 28.8% pop and the most of any sector.
What we're watching: This new economy demand (tech) overtaking old economy (natural resources) is "a trajectory we expect will continue next year as AI-related M&A gains steam," Goldman said in an M&A outlook report.
- Microsoft, Meta, Google and Amazon — a group of companies known as hyperscalers — are spending tens of billions of dollars each to build and power data centers that can meet surging AI demand.
- "Infrastructure, broadly defined, has gotten incredibly active," Feldgoise notes. "And a lot of that is because of the convergence of tech and data centers."
