Charted: Health coverage without ACA subsidies
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Household spending on health insurance will increase across multiple income groups if enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies are allowed to expire next year, Urban Institute researchers found.
Why it matters: The fate of the tax credits is shaping up to be one of the biggest health policy fights next year, with Republicans increasingly likely to not renew the assistance.
- Congressional Republican negotiators last week rejected a Democratic proposal for a one-year extension as part of a year-end health deal.
- President-elect Trump, on NBC's "Meet the Press," wouldn't rule out replacing the Affordable Care Act, repeating that he still had "concepts of a plan" for health care.
What they found: Expiration of the subsidies would mean people making 200% to 250% of the federal poverty level, or about $37,000 in annual income, would see their spending double to as much as $1,076 in annual premiums.
- Those with incomes between 150% and 200% of FPL would see their premium spending increase more than 400% from $180 to $905 per year.
Zoom in: The effects also would vary widely from state to state.
- Those with incomes below 250% of FPL would see average annual increases between $193 in New Mexico to $924 in Alaska.
- For those who earn more than 250% of FPL, premiums would rise from $119 a year in West Virginia to $1,434 in California.
Between the lines: If enhanced subsidies are allowed to expire, enrollment in ACA marketplaces is projected to drop by an estimated 7.2 million people, per the report.
- A report from the Congressional Budget Office last week estimated that, without an extension through 2026, the number of uninsured will rise by 2.2 million that year.
- The number could rise by 3.7 million in 2027 and by 3.8 million, on average, in each year between 2026 and 2034.
- The CBO has estimated it would cost $335 billion over 10 years if the subsidies were made permanent.
