Minneapolis Fed president on deportations and tariffs

• It will be a huge question mark for the Fed in the months ahead as officials try to set policy.

What they're saying: "It's impossible to know at this stage what will actually get implemented, how aggressive [policies] will be," Kashkari says.

• "In political campaigns, candidates generally make broader declarations than what gets implemented — on both sides of the aisle," Kashkari adds.

On immigration, Kashkari says businesses would feel the effects of any mass deportation policy, though the extent of such effects is unknown.

• "If you assume undocumented immigrants are working, then if they are pulled out of the country, then businesses that are employing them would obviously face some disruptions," Kashkari says.
• He adds a caveat: "I have no idea how rapid this would be, how widespread it would be."

The intrigue: Kashkari says that companies across his district — which includes Montana, Minnesota, the Dakotas, and parts of Wisconsin and Michigan — are in favor of legal immigration.

• "Republicans and Democrats tell me the same thing: 'We need a lot more workers,'" Kashkari says.

On tariffs, Kashkari said the impact on inflation and Fed policy is similarly uncertain.

• "If it really is a one-time event, it should be a one-time price level change and not much impact on inflation expectations or the path of monetary policy," Kashkari says.
• "But that's all predicated on what are the other countries going to do in response?" he adds. "If there is a tit for tat, which is anybody's guess right now, then that could be different."