Elon Musk's Twitter takeover math has changed

• The argument is that Musk bought Twitter for power, not profit. And that the gamble paid off.
• Musk used the platform to help shape public opinion during the election, artificially amplifying his political messages and giving him influence with Donald Trump that money alone wouldn't have bought.
• Trump's victory means that Musk has become the most powerful unelected American ever — and that could be a boon for SpaceX and Tesla, whose fortunes are heavily dependent on federal government contracts and policies.
• Those two companies also are much larger than Twitter/X, even at $44 billion, and more core to Musk's lifelong goals.

Zoom in: These broader wins may be cold comfort for investors who helped finance Musk's buyout of Twitter. Revenue has plummeted, while Fidelity recently valued its shares at a 78.71% discount to cost.

• The counter would be that many of these backers also have exposure to other parts of Elon's empire.

• Fidelity, for example, also invested in xAI, which could benefit from having Trump's ear at the dawn of AI regulation.

Yes, but: All of this is dependent on Musk and Trump remaining in each other's good graces over the next four years, which is anything from a sure bet.

The bottom line: Elon Musk may be responsible for the worst tech buyout of all time. But only when considered in a vacuum.