Mexico will have to tread carefully with a new Trump administration

State of play: During the campaign, Trump suggested he'd consider invading or bombing Mexico to fight drug cartels.

• Earlier this week he also threatened to slap a 25% tariff on Mexican goods, which he claimed would help halt the flow of fentanyl through the border and pressure Mexico to do more to stem illegal immigration.
• Reality check: Tariffs might be hard to impose since Mexico, Canada and the U.S. have shared duty-free trade rules under the USMCA, which Trump himself negotiated during his first term.

What they're saying: Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum "is facing a complicated scenario," Carin Zissis, editor-in-chief of Americas Society and Council of the Americas Online, tells Axios Latino.

• Zissis adds it'll be key to watch how the Mexican cabinet maneuvers Trump's promises come his inauguration in January.
• She points out that Mexico's secretary of economy, Marcelo Ebrard, has already successfully dealt with Trump's previous threats to impose tariffs in 2019, when Ebrard was foreign affairs minister.

Sheinbaum said on Wednesday that she wasn't too worried about bilateral relations during another Trump term, emphasizing that there already is cooperation on issues like migration.

• "Flow to the shared border has fallen by 75% and there is coordination, like there is for issues like the flow of drugs or weapons … I trust the dialogue for this will continue," said Sheinbaum.
• She added work already is being done to strengthen Mexican consulates to support or advise "our (Mexican) sisters and brothers that live in the U.S." in the case of mass deportations.

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