Election outcome has two different worlds for AI
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AI, like everything else in the U.S. on the threshold of a historic election, faces a fork in the road Tuesday.
Why it matters: A victory by Vice President Harris is likely to mean new life for the Biden administration's careful approach to AI regulation, which she has overseen. Meanwhile, former President Trump hasn't said much about AI — but if he wins next week, Elon Musk does, too.
A new Harris administration would likely pursue a middle-of-the-road AI agenda in the vein of Biden's 2023 executive order.
- That means a more-carrot-than-stick approach that involves support for chipmakers and some modest oversight requirements for the most advanced AI projects, but no licensing rules or mandatory transparency requirements for training data and other details.
A Harris White House will also face pressure from Silicon Valley giants to back off from the more aggressive regulatory stance of the Biden era.
- Reid Hoffman, a Harris supporter and donor, called on her in July to replace Federal Trade Commission chair Lina Khan.
- But the many antitrust lawsuits pursued over the last four years have a life of their own, and would likely continue under an administration that behaves the way most do.
- Those actions include multiple major cases against Google that have weighed on the search giant's efforts to dominate the AI landscape.
A second Trump term would lay out a much more volatile scenario for AI.
- Trump's relationship with tech firms during his previous presidency was frequently transactional.
- Candidate Trump is taking a similar approach: A Washington Post report this week says he asked Amazon, during an August phone call with CEO Andy Jassy, to fork over a big campaign contribution.
- Trump's pattern of rewarding loyalty, punishing critics and embracing the ideas of the last person that talked to him make it hard to foresee all the twists and turns AI policy would face in a new Trump administration.
We do know one thing — Elon Musk, who is raising billions for his xAI startup, would almost certainly gain additional sway.
- Musk is paying in advance for this influence: He is obsessively promoting Trump on his X platform and has poured over $118 million into a super PAC, as Axios' Zachary Basu reports.
- Musk has massive interests with the federal government — both through contracts and regulatory probes of his companies — and is eyeing a role as head of Trump's proposed "government efficiency commission."
An empowered Musk is almost certainly bad news for OpenAI, a company that he helped found but fell out with soon after, and has tangled with in both the courts and the press.
- A Vice President Vance, with his background in venture capital, could also play a key role in Trump administration tech decisions. But Vance can't count on that — look at how small a role Trump's previous vice president played.
The outcome of the fight to control Congress will also determine the nature of any new laws that might aim to influence AI's growth.
- Speaker Mike Johnson has staked out an anti-regulatory "don't touch AI" position that would likely carry over to a new term if the Republicans retain control of the House.
- If Democrats win power, they could pursue a more active agenda, but the narrow margins in both houses of Congress mean any tech legislation remains a long shot.
What's next: The most active arena for AI rule-making is likely to continue to be the states — particularly California, home to the industry and to some of the highest-profile efforts to regulate it.
- The courts will also play an outsize role over the next few years in setting landmark new rules for copyright and intellectual property in the AI age.
The bottom line: Whoever wins on Tuesday, the companies that are building AI will probably continue to make the most consequential decisions about the nascent industry's future.
