Why the 13 became targets
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Three main factors can put a district on the target list, Republican and Democratic strategists who work on House races told us.
1) Weak incumbent: For Democrats, targets include Reps. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wisc.), Ryan Zinke (R-Mont.) and Scott Perry (R-Pa.).
- For Republicans, it's members like Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), who they see as facing the first truly tough challenge of her 40-year career in a district that voted for former President Trump in 2020.
2) Strong challenger: Democrats are enamored with the backgrounds of candidates such as Monica Tranel, a former Olympian who's challenging Zinke, and Janelle Stelson, a TV anchor running against Perry.
- Republicans are leaning on the diversity of their candidate slate in these districts. That includes Rep. Pat Ryan's (D-N.Y.) challenger Alison Esposito, Rep. Jahana Hayes' (D-Conn.) challenger George Logan and former Rep. Mayra Flores, who's running against Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas).
3) Promising fundamentals: House Democrats hope backlash to abortion laws in redder states like Iowa will drive turnout. They're also counting on a boost from competitive Senate races in Montana, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
- Republicans are hoping for a second wave of backlash against Democrats in California and New York that fueled their 2022 victory.
— Andrew Solender
