Kalshi has all kinds of markets up

Kalshi, the prediction marketplace that won (for now) its right to operate — has floated a bunch more markets, including one for U.S. president.

Why it matters: Kalshi is not a cryptocurrency project, but its competitor Polymarket is and has been one of the buzziest projects in the industry this year.

• Polymarket's officially not available here, however. Due to a 2022 settlement with federal regulators, the company takes steps to keep U.S.-based users off its platform.

Context: Prediction markets have been a favorite concept of blockchain types going way back. (One of the original decentralized apps built on Ethereum was one called Augur.)

• The theory is that when everyone with information about a future event can weigh in with money on the line, they will contribute more honest input, giving the public the best-informed projections.
• Prediction markets are what happens when nerds dream of a better world.

The latest: Nearly $1.3 million has been bet on Kalshi for who will be elected president; over $51,000 on the balance of power; and a few thousand on who will win the most expensive Senate race in the country, Ohio.

Yes, but: In terms of volume, Kalshi is way, way behind Polymarket, which has had its best month ever each month since May.

• October has already seen $396 million in volume, putting it at roughly 80% of September's total.

The intrigue: The handful of markets that have a green light in the U.S. all narrowly favor Vice President Kamala Harris to win (see also: IBKR Forecast Traders and PredictIt).

• Polymarket shows it close too, but says former President Trump will win.

Between the lines: Notably, all of these markets are basically saying it's a coin flip, so no matter what happens none of them will be "wrong," because they are expressing a probability rather than an outcome, and that probability is super fuzzy.

• Hive mind right now: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯