Why the electoral college map could change right before the election
Add Axios as your preferred source to
see more of our stories on Google.
/2024/09/20/1726857350300.gif?w=3840)
Illustration: Allie Carl/Axios
For months, Nebraska and Maine have engaged in a standoff over possible changes to their electoral college votes, but a missed deadline in Maine means Nebraska Republicans can toss an extra electoral vote to Trump without fear of retaliation from Maine Democrats.
Why it matters: Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that don't use a winner-take-all system to award their electoral delegates, but Nebraska has inched toward scrapping that in a move that would give Trump one more electoral college vote in what's expected to be a tight race.
- Maine Democrats had vowed to change their system as well to cancel out Nebraska's move, but they appear to have run out of time.
The big picture: With less than two months to election day, the presidential race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remains tight, meaning each electoral vote will be critical for carving a path towards victory.
- The road to clinching 270 delegates, for either candidate, will likely come down to a handful of states.
- One highly plausible path could see Harris win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin but lose the Sun Belt swing states — bringing the race for the White House down to a single blue-leaning district in Nebraska.
State of play: Currently, Nebraska with five electoral votes and Maine with four allow some of their delegates to be split between candidates by voting district.
- Maine is a blue state with one Republican-leaning district, while Nebraska is a red state with one Democratic-leaning district.
Nebraska
The push to change Nebraska's allotment system began rumbling this spring, when Gov. Jim Pillen (R) and Trump both endorsed a proposal to change to a winner-take-all system — though the proposal ultimately failed.
- However, the issue gained fresh traction over the past week, after Pillen issued a statement saying he would call a special legislative session to reconsider the matter if he could be assured the GOP had the requisite 33 votes to back the change.
Zoom in: On Wednesday, Pillen met with Trump-ally Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and about a dozen Nebraska Republicans to discuss the matter.
- Graham reportedly tried to encourage the final holdouts to support the change.
- All five members of Nebraska's federal delegation — all Republicans — sent a letter to Pillen and the State Legislature's speaker on Wednesday night endorsing the change.
- The Trump campaign did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.
Maine
Lawmakers in Maine have warned that if the Cornhusker State changes to a winner-take-all system they will move to do the same, effectively canceling Nebraska out.
- Maine's House Majority Leader Maureen Terry (D) said in April that her party would be compelled to make the change in order "restore fairness."
Yes, but: Maine faces a potentially insurmountable logistical hurdle.
- Any legislation passed in Maine takes 90 days to go into effect, and Thursday marked 89 days until the electoral college is set to meet on Dec. 17 — meaning the Maine Legislature has already run out of time to make the change under normal rules.
- Maine can enact "emergency" legislation immediately, but passing a measure under this provision would require a supermajority of two-thirds in both houses of Congress in the state.
- While Democrats control both chambers in the Maine legislature, they don't have a supermajority in the Maine House — so passing any measure to change the allotment system would require Republican support.
Between the lines: Maine Republicans aren't in any rush to join the push to change the state's allotment system.
- "We should be trying to convince other states to use a more representative process like ours, not change to winner-take-all like other states," House Minority Leader Billy Bob Faulkingham (R) said in a statement Thursday, the Bangor Daily News reported.
Go deeper: Graham met Nebraska leaders in push to get Trump one more electoral vote
