In the prediction markets, Harris jumps ahead of Trump
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The prediction market for the U.S. presidential election sprang to life Tuesday night during the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
What happened: Before the debate began, bettors on the blockchain-based prediction market, Polymarket, solidly favored Trump — but Harris' performance moved the odds to a tie by the end of the face-off.
- Harris shot ahead when pop star Taylor Swift endorsed her just minutes after the debate ended.
How it works: Bettors on Polymarket buy a share for a given outcome in an event (such as the winner of the U.S. presidency). Every correct share can be redeemed for $1 in cryptocurrency.
- Outcomes that are more likely to trade at higher prices, so there's less profit to buy them.
- However, losers get nothing.
Between the lines: Proponents of prediction markets believe they yield better information because people are more honest with money on the line.
- Regulators in the U.S. have serious doubts, however.
