Health worker shortages forecast thru 2028
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Continued worker burnout and more demand for care from an aging population will drive health care workforce shortages into 2028 — though with significant variations by state, according to a Mercer analysis.
Why it matters: While there's been considerable attention paid to physician shortages, the analysis highlights an acute need for more nurse practitioners, even in states like California and Texas that will have overall surpluses of health workers.
By the numbers: The U.S. is expected to be short 100,000 health care workers by 2028, Mercer projects.
- New York will be short about 61,000 health care workers, or a more than 4% gap between supply and demand. New Jersey, Tennessee, Georgia, and Florida could all be more than 10,000 workers short of meeting patient demand.
- North Dakota, meanwhile, will have a nearly 5% surplus of health care workers by 2028. California, Texas, and Pennsylvania are also expected to have significantly more health care workers than needed.
Zoom in: Most states should have enough registered nurses to meet patient needs in 2028, and the country as a whole is expected to have a surplus of 30,000 RNs that year.
- But nearly every state will be short of nurse practitioners, despite employment of NPs growing faster than nearly all other jobs, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Only 13 states will be able to meet the demand for nursing aides, according to the projection.
- Home health and personal care workers, who represent nearly one-quarter of the health workforce, are projected to exceed demand nationally by almost 48,000 workers, though shortages are expected in states including North Carolina and New York.
The big picture: Continued burnout among health care workers and non-competitive pay for some positions are colliding with increased demand for health care services as baby boomers age.
- The churn continues a trend that spiked during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and in 2022 — particularly among women, workers with children, and marginalized racial groups, Mercer noted.
- The projections are based on publicly available workforce data and data provided to the company by analytics firm Lightcast.
