President Biden is likely to block Japan's Nippon Steel from buying Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel for $14.9 billion, citing national security concerns.
The intrigue: If Biden pulls the trigger, three big questions emerge:
Will U.S. Steel make good on its threat to shut Pennsylvania factories?
Will U.S. Steel reconsider an earlier takeover bid from Cleveland Cliffs, which it feared would spark a DOJ antitrust investigation? Perhaps both sides wait for the result of November's presidential election.
How will Japan react? It's a strong U.S. ally, and one that has many major companies in the M&A crosshairs of American companies and investment firms. Already it's expressing annoyance.
Catch up quick: Vice President Harris earlier this week sounded similar notes to Biden's disapproval of the merger, while former President Trump has said he'd block the deal were he in office.
Look ahead: A formal announcement could come before the weekend.