Tropical Storm Ernesto intensifies as it nears Puerto Rico
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Satellite image of an intensifying Tropical Storm Ernesto on August 13 as it moves toward Puerto Rico. Image: NOAA
Tropical Storm Ernesto is intensifying as it moves across the northern Leeward Islands, toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
Why it matters: Puerto Rico's electrical grid is still highly vulnerable to high winds and heavy rains, despite extensive rebuilding projects since 2017's devastating Hurricane Maria.
Zoom in: Ernesto is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday night, as it passes over the Virgin Islands and just to the north-northeast of Puerto Rico.
- The storm may become a major hurricane of Category 3 intensity or above as it moves into the open Atlantic, and when it nears Bermuda on Friday into Saturday.
- However, as of Tuesday afternoon at 5pm ET, its maximum sustained winds were at 60 mph, up from 40mph earlier in the day.
- Heavy rainfall is still its biggest threat to Puerto Rico, but a long duration of tropical storm force winds will also be felt there, with hurricane-force winds possible in Vieques.
- A dip in the jet stream, also known as a trough, will act as a blocking mechanism for the East Coast, keeping Ernesto from directly threatening the Lower 48 states.
Between the lines: Puerto Rico has set ambitious electricity goals, such as meeting 100% of its electricity needs with renewable energy by 2050.
- However, progress in shoring up the reliability of the grid — much of which is connected to transmission lines in mountainous regions — has been slow.
- Hurricane Fiona in 2022, a Category 1 storm, demonstrated the ability of even relatively modest hurricanes to cause lengthy blackouts on the island.
- The Department of Energy, along with the Department of Housing and Urban Development and other parts of the federal and local governments, have devoted more than $1 billion to rebuilding the island's electrical infrastructure and make it more resilient.
- Solar power, microgrids and other technologies are being deployed there as well.
What's next: Ernesto's closest pass to Puerto Rico will come Tuesday night through Wednesday, with most models putting its center just to the east of the island while it is intensifying.
- Even without a direct hit, strong winds and heavy, flooding rains of up to 10 inches are likely, with possible mudslides.
- The National Hurricane Center is predicting the heaviest rains to fall in eastern Puerto Rico, Vieques and other nearby islands.
What we're watching: How quickly the storm consolidates its thunderstorms and is able to intensify, which will help determine its impacts in Puerto Rico.
Go deeper: NOAA forecasts extraordinarily busy Atlantic hurricane season
