Election 2024's cyber chaos is kicking in
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Illustration: Natalie Peeples/Axios
News of a reported cyberattack at the Trump campaign is likely just the beginning of what promises to be a hectic, unpredictable cybersecurity run-up to November's election.
Why it matters: Since 2016's Russian-backed pilfering of the Hilary Clinton campaign's private emails, the specter of foreign meddling in U.S. elections has returned every four years, fueling mistrust in the political process.
Driving the news: Politico reported Saturday that the Trump campaign claimed to have been attacked by Iran-backed hackers after the publication had received stolen dossiers and other materials from an anonymous source.
- Microsoft released a report Friday warning that Iran-backed hackers had targeted a high-ranking political campaign official via a spear-phishing email.
- The intelligence community also assessed late last month that Iran was pushing influence operations to undermine the Trump campaign.
Yes, but: Microsoft hasn't confirmed the connection and so far the Trump campaign hasn't provided evidence to back its claim.
Threat level: "Buckle up," Chris Krebs, former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, tweeted Saturday.
- "Someone is running the 2016 playbook, expect continued efforts to stoke fires in society and go after election systems."
The big picture: More nation-states are using Russia's 2016 playbook to spur chaos and confusion through whatever means they can — including hack-and-leak schemes and social media-based disinformation campaigns.
- China and Iran are both already using AI in their online disinformation campaigns.
- Election officials have been taking every opportunity they have — including on the ground in Las Vegas this week at the world's top hacker conferences — to express confidence in the security of the 2024 elections.
- State and federal officials are already preparing for repeated claims of a rigged election that adversaries could amplify online depending on the outcome of the November vote.
Between the lines: Even a report of a cyberattack targeting a political campaign — verified or not — is enough to stoke voter skepticism in the current political environment, Jake Braun, a former White House official and a national deputy field director for the 2008 Obama campaign, told Axios.
- "This stuff is what's actually going to undermine confidence far more than some deepfake that comes out," he said on the sidelines of the DEF CON hacker conference Saturday.
The intrigue: How campaigns mobilize around reports of nation-state threats also influences how effective foreign adversaries' meddling actually is.
- Braun expects the Trump camp will use the threats to continue to feed its narrative that the election process is rigged against them.
- "The responsibility of either campaign is to say that they're against this for both parties," Braun said. "They don't want any election being hacked."
Flashback: During the 2016 election cycle, Trump asked Russia to hack Hillary Clinton's emails.
The bottom line: "This should be a wakeup call to all campaigns large and small that campaigns are targets of nation states, hacktivists and cybercriminals," Michael Kaiser, president and CEO of Defending Digital Campaigns, said in a statement.
Go deeper: Get ready for an onslaught of election disinformation
