Fissures on energy policy possible among GOP, industries if Trump wins

What we're watching: The politics of "clean" energy under a potential Trump White House and GOP-led Congress. Two events this week help set the stage.

First, 18 House Republicans urged Speaker Mike Johnson not to attack IRA energy incentives, saying this would hurt infrastructure investments.

Then DOE's loan office — mostly fallow under Trump 1.0 — on Thursday said it plans $1.5 billion for Qcells solar manufacturing in Cartersville, Georgia.

• It's a purple state with a GOP governor, and Cartersville sits within a Republican House district.
• A number of planned or issued loans in recent years are for projects in reliably Republican states.

The big picture: It's part of the broader funnel of tens of billions of dollars in federal support for projects in red and blue states and congressional districts.

• "Whichever way you slice the numbers — spending, jobs, projects announced under Biden before or after the passage of the IRA — red districts garner an overwhelming proportion of the benefits," a joint Bloomberg-EnerWrap analysis showed.
• House Republicans oppose the IRA, but some may bristle if a new Trump administration seeks to slow or complicate implementing it.
• The 18 GOP lawmakers told Johnson: "We hear from industry and our constituents who fear the energy tax regime will once again be turned on its head due to Republican repeal efforts."

The intrigue: Oil and gas companies are largely aligned with Trump's agenda on topics like LNG exports and drilling leases.

• But there could be real divides. The industry worries that tariffs could raise costs of goods like steel used in their projects,and spur retaliation against U.S. energy exports.

• And large players are poised to benefit from tax credits for carbon capture, and perhaps hydrogen, depending on how Treasury ultimately structures rules on the latter.

Friction point: A preview of tensions to come arrived in the wake of the 18 Republicans' letter.

• Prominent Texas conservative Rep. Chip Roy bashed the effort, posting on X that Republicans "must ignore K-Street lobbyists and refuse to fund the climate corporate cronies destroying our country."

Flashback: Rep. Buddy Carter (R-Ga.), a senior member of the Energy and Commerce Committee who was among those signing the letter, told Axios in April there are "some good parts of the IRA."

The bottom line: Trump is good at getting his party to fall into line. But he'd also be an instant lame duck, and money is money.