New studies paint troubling picture on methane emissions

• Failure to slash emissions from agriculture, oil production and elsewhere will likely keep Paris Agreement temperature goals out of reach.

Driving the news: Big U.S. oil and gas fields are releasing four times more methane than EPA tallies that are based on industry data indicate, an Environmental Defense Fund analysis claims.

• The findings are based on high-tech aerial surveys in 2023 using a specially equipped airplane.
• It previews what's possible globally with the recently launched MethaneSAT satellite, EDF said.

Meanwhile, a paper in Frontiers in Science finds an "abrupt and rapid increase" in the growth rate of atmospheric methane in the early 2020s.

• It cites two main reasons: higher levels from fossil fuel production and wetlands releasing more in a warming climate.
• Methane, along with CO2, must "drop rapidly" to limit warming to 1.5°C-2°C above preindustrial levels, the paper notes.
• Costs of stemming the gas are low compared to harms from warming, but "legally binding regulations and methane pricing are needed to meet climate goals," it argues.

Zoom in: EDF finds oil and gas companies' methane "intensity" — the amount escaping per unit of energy produced — far exceeds industry goals.

• The aggregate "loss rate" in the 12 U.S. oil and gas basins EDF surveyed is 1.6%.
• EDF notes that's far above the target of 0.2% in 2030 adopted by the Oil & Gas Decarbonization Charter launched at last year's UN climate talks.
• An older industry group, the Oil and Gas Climate Initiative, adopted the same goal several years ago.

This chart ☝️ summarizes findings from the EDF analysis of major basins in the lower 48 states.

The Permian, by far the country's largest oilfield, has the highest absolute emissions.

Yes, but: Amounts escaping per unit of energy produced is a trickier story.

• "Gas-dominant" basins with high well-site productivity have comparatively low rates.
• Areas heavy on oil production are higher. This could stem from losses of "associated" gas, "possibly due to inefficient flaring and/or insufficient gas gathering or takeaway capacity."

Friction point: While measurements are improving, there are varying — and hotly debated — estimates of industry emissions.

• "We look forward to reviewing the [EDF] report," EPA told Axios.
• The American Petroleum Institute said its members are reducing emissions. It cited research showing substantial cuts from 2015-2022.
• "We can build on this progress through a sound EPA reporting framework, effective federal regulations and the deployment of advanced detection technologies," VP of upstream policy Holly Hopkins said in a statement.

What we're watching: The effectiveness of U.S. policy and global climate talks.

• EPA issued regulations in late 2023 to cut oil industry emissions, while the 2022 climate law also has methane provisions.
• The 2021 UN climate summit brought a multinational pledge to slash methane emissions by 30% by 2030.