COVID-19 fatalities in central Europe during the height of the pandemic would have been as much as 27% higher if death certificates listing the virus as a complication had instead designated it as the underlying cause of death, according to a new study.
Why it matters: While the pandemic's unrecognized death toll has spawned some heated debates, accurate estimates of mortality are needed to plan for future outbreaks and can influence the public to take precautions.
What they found: A University of Warsaw statistical analysis of 187,300 death certificates with a COVID-19 mention found deaths attributed to typical coronavirus complications or comorbidities may have been due to unrecognized COVID-19 itself.
COVID-19 mortality would have been up to 18%–27% higher had COVID-19 been coded as the underlying cause of death, the authors wrote in PLOS ONE.
The analysis focused on deaths in Austria, Bavaria, Czechia, Lithuania and Poland in 2020 and 2021. Conditions frequently listed as underlying causes of death included pneumonia, respiratory arrest, obesity and diabetes.
Reasons for the undercount included delays in testing, misclassifications by overtaxed health systems and the atypical course of the disease, the authors wrote.
