Vista Outdoor's future hinges on next week's vote

Catch up quick: Vista, a Minnesota-based public company that sells ammunition and outdoor gear, has two offers in hand.

• The company agreed to a $2.1 billion agreement to sell its ammunition business, known as The Kinetic Group, to the Czechoslovak Group (CSG). That's what shareholders will vote on.
• But it also has a bid from MNC Capital to buy the entire company for $42 per share, or $3.2 billion. The stock is trading at $38.22 Wednesday afternoon.

By the numbers: Vista Outdoor says that once separated, the outdoor gear division, known as Revelyst, is expected to double its EBITDA in fiscal year 2025.

• MNC has challenged Vista on that projection and on where Revelyst will trade once separated, and said it has no intention of raising its offer.

State of play: Shareholders that vote next week have received conflicting recommendations.

• Vista has advised shareholders to vote in favor of the CSG deal.
• The largest and most influential shareholder advisory firm, ISS, is advising clients to vote against the deal, and instead support the rival bid from MNC, a private investment firm.

Reality check: Like most shareholder votes these days, the results will come down to three investors: BlackRock, State Street, and Vanguard. Combined the three own around 25% of the company's stock.

• The so-called Big Three are all ISS clients, though each of the index funds have large proxy voting teams that will analyze ISS recommendations, and ultimately make its own choice.

What we're watching: Whether BlackRock, which owns around 15% of Vista's stock, will vote for against the CSG deal.

• Given ISS' recommendation and where shares are trading ahead of the vote, the result of July 23 are going to be a nail biter.