Big names move into and out of crypto media

Yesterday was a big day for major names in media making moves with regard to the cryptocurrency business.

Why it matters: Media moves tend to be a bit of a lagging indicator of crypto market cycles.

What we're watching: The founder of political stats news site 538, Nate Silver, has become an advisor to Polymarket, the company that seems to own the prediction market business these days, Axios reported first yesterday.

• Silver told Axios' Sara Fischer that he foresees prediction markets helping business leaders to assess political risks for their businesses.
• "Nate has been an inspiration for me since long before I started Polymarket," the company's founder, Shayne Coplan, tweeted as he shared the news.

Yes, but: In his new book, Silver specifically notes that 538's predictions tended to outperform prediction markets, in no small part because rich people would make outsized, absurd bets and distort the markets.

By the numbers: Polymarket had nearly 30,000 traders in June, easily its best month ever. July looks likely to overtake it.

• Perhaps there's a scale where dumb money won't be able to warp things too badly.

💭 Our thought bubble: There's been a buzz among crypto types lately hoping for some reporters to come together and start finding stories based on prediction markets that open up.

The other side: Then again, Nathaniel Popper was a star reporter at The New York Times, covering all things Bitcoin and the decentralized web.

• He wrote one of the first full-length books I read about the space, "Digital Gold."
• And his work made it in the Netflix doc, "Bitconned."

The latest: Popper is pivoting to AI, joining The Information.

The bottom line: Crypto v. Normies, 1 - 1.