Updated Jun 20, 2024 - Politics & Policy

Republicans see a dead heat in Arizona Senate race

Stephen Neukam

Arizona Republican Senate Candidate Kari Lake and an aide depart Capitol Hill on March, 6 2024 in Washington, DC. — Kari Lake in Washington in March. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is telling donors that the Arizona Senate race is "an absolute toss-up," despite the Democrat consistently leading in public polling, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The move signals GOP concern that the Arizona contest could fall down donors' priority lists in favor of other Senate campaigns where Republican candidates are polling closer to their Democratic opponents.

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Az.) is consistently polling ahead of Republican Kari Lake just over four months from the election.
A CBS poll last month showed Gallego with a 13-point lead in the race.

State of play: The NRSC, the campaign arm of Senate Republicans, told donors in a Wednesday memo obtained by Axios that polling showing Lake losing is "misleading."

Instead the NRSC said the race, which could determine control of the chamber next year, is a statistical tie in their polling.
Gallego's campaign didn't immediately respond to a request for comment.

The big picture: Republicans are pinning their hopes on President Biden's weak popularity to help Lake in November, according to the memo.

The NRSC thinks undecided voters in the Arizona Senate contest will break for Lake, arguing Biden's popularity is under water with that bloc of voters.

The memo also points to former President Trump's polling lead over Biden in the state, saying his performance will influence down ballot races.

The bottom line: The Arizona contest is likely to be one of the closest of the 2024 cycle after Biden narrowly carried the state in 2020.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting,

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Republicans see a dead heat in Arizona Senate race

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