Data shows EV growth slowdown is real, but not the whole story
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The long-term outlook for EVs "remains bright," according to a new report, but a much-discussed sales slowdown is indeed a real thing in some markets.
Why it matters: Slowing demand growth, despite policy support, brings questions about how much automakers should boost production of climate-friendly cars.
The big picture: The research firm BloombergNEF sees fully electric and plug-in hybrids together reaching 33% of new passenger vehicle sales in 2027. That's up from roughly 18% last year.
The intrigue: The U.S. is lagging the White House goal of EVs reaching 50% by 2030, while EPA rules seek much more robust sales just two years later.
- Under BloombergNEF's base case, politics and too few lower-cost models hold the market back.
- "In the U.S., EV market jitters inflamed by the upcoming presidential elections helped slow down adoption this year, and by 2027 only 29% of cars sold in the country are electric."
Threat level: Multiple nations' trade restrictions on Chinese models could slow near-term adoption, they caution.
- And policy backing "looks less certain than it did a year ago," with some European governments cutting subsidies earlier than expected.
Yes, but: Some slowdown in the adoption curve was expected, they note, and global growth in 2024 is similar to prior editions of their forecast.
The bottom line: The report has all kinds of other U.S. and global data, and it amounts to a mixed bag.
- Momentum remains, but the world is nowhere near electrification of cars and other vehicles that would be consistent with a "net-zero" emissions path.
