"Tornado Alley" is shifting, putting Midwest and Southeast in its sights
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A new study shows "Tornado Alley" is migrating east, underscoring the increasing vulnerability of twisters in the Midwest and Southeast, and a decreasing trend across the Plains.
Why it matters: Tornadoes are deadly and destructive, and the thunderstorms that give rise to them are susceptible to climate change. This includes increasing temperatures, higher humidity and alterations in wind shear.
Zoom in: Modeling studies have shown that as the climate continues to warm, there would be more days with an unstable atmosphere prone to thunderstorm formation, resulting in more thunderstorm days, particularly in the East
- However, wind shear, which refers to winds blowing at different speed and/or directions with height, may become less plentiful in a warmer world, research showed.
Between the lines: The new peer reviewed research, building upon previous work, analyzes observational data between 1951-2020. It demonstrates that more heavily populated areas in the Midwest and Southeast are already seeing more tornadoes, and that the Plains' status as the tornado capital of the country is false.
- In addition, the researchers found a transition away from warm season tornadoes, particularly during the summer, and toward the cold season.
- "All of the increase in F/EF1+ tornadoes in the eastern U.S. is due to an increase in cold season tornadoes," the study states.
- Summer tornadoes declined by 37%, the study found.
- While the researchers did not conduct an attribution analysis into whether climate change is behind these shifts, they note that the findings are consistent with climate change projections.
The fine print: The largest increase in tornado frequency are in southern Mississippi, middle Tennessee and southwestern Kentucky, while the largest decreases took place in northern Texas and southern Oklahoma.
- Jackson, Miss. is located in the region that had the largest increase in tornadoes, while Cleburne, Texas, had the largest decrease, the study found.
