Apr 26, 2024 - Economy

🤓 Charted: Halving hindsight

Bitcoin price performance after halving
Data: Kaiko; Chart: Alice Feng/Axios Visuals

Following the 🥑 halving, some folks might be waiting for 🍊 bitcoin prices to rocket higher.

An analysis of price performance after halvings shows that the biggest returns come nine months after the event, or one year, according to Kaiko Research.

  • One year after the 2012 halving, BTC posted a 8,228% gain — the best performance it put up historically.
  • In 2020, its price was up just 542% one year after the halving.

The intrigue: Given the halving is an expected, and programmed event, and following Efficient Market Theory, one might proffer that the reduction in supply would already be priced in.

  • Other people have different thoughts about this.

Reality check: "Bitcoin's halving alone won't be a catalyst for a sustained bull run over the next 12 to 18 months," according to Kaiko.

  • The research firm also pointed out that BTC ran up in past halvings while interest rates were super low, and now they are not.
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