Visitors are returning to most — but not all — of America's downtowns
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Most American downtowns saw a bump in visitor activity between March 2023 and February 2024, per new University of Toronto data.
Why it matters: The updated figures are one way to understand which cities are recovering and which are still struggling after the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic.
How it works: Researchers at the University of Toronto's School of Cities are using anonymized mobile device location data to estimate visitor activity in the downtown areas of dozens of North American cities.
- They define "downtown" as the location in each metro area with the highest job concentration.
The big picture: By and large, downtowns are recovering nicely — if slowly.
- "Fifty downtowns are in an upward trajectory, while just 14 are trending downwards," per the researchers' latest update, which counts some Canadian cities.
Between the lines: Many of the cities with relatively high recovery rates over this latest period had struggled in past years.
- "In other words, their recovery may now be converging with the downtowns that largely recovered in 2023," the researchers write.
Zoom in: Cities tended to benefit from a summertime activity bump that faded as colder temperatures arrived this past winter.
- That said, some stayed above their March 2023 baseline even into the fall and winter months, "suggesting gradual recovery," per the researchers.
- Others, however, fell below their March figures — a sign of "stagnating recovery."
Winners: Minneapolis (+45.3% change in visitors between March 2023 and February 2024), Chicago (+35.5%) and Louisville (+32.5%).
Losers: San Francisco (-21.6%), San Antonio (-17.5%) and Fort Worth (-9.4%).
💬 Our thought bubble: While city officials, business leaders and so on would no doubt prefer to have a vibrant city center, the pandemic sparked lots of interesting and valuable activity in many cities' outer neighborhoods.
The bottom line: It'll take more time for America's cities to fully recover — and some may never get back to their pre-pandemic figures.
- But most of them are at least on the right path.
